With the 2008 race off to a fast start, there have already been some big surprises (Obama, anyone?). But the biggest shocker so far has to be how strong "America's mayor" is running in the polls. The conventional wisdom on Rudy Giuliani is that while he's popular among the general electorate, he's too liberal to win a Republican primary. His support of gay rights and his abortion rights views would alienate social conservatives, the thinking goes, and cost him the nomination. If some opinion surveys are to be believed, though, the conventional wisdom is wrong.
The most recent poll has Giuliani leading the Republican field by five points (with 31 percent to John McCain's 26 percent, according to Real Clear Politics). True, it's early. But the numbers do reflect a deep reservoir of support among some GOP primary voters.
Giuliani has a few things going in his favor. For starters, he has incredible name recognition. In what's shaping up to be a field of outsized personalities for both parties, Giuliani may well loom largest. He formed a bond with Americans in the wake of Sept 11., and his handling of that event is still strongly appreciated. Largely because of this, the National Journal noted that Giuliani enters the race more admired and more-liked than "any presidential candidate since Eisenhower."
Giuliani's socially liberal views are seen as a major weakness, but they also provide some electoral strength. Pollsters estimate that about 30 percent of the Republican primary base is abortion rights. While the rest of the base is anti-abortion rights, only about 30 percent are considered anti-abortion voters (meaning they vote on the basis of a candidate's stance on abortion). In a primary field splintered by almost a dozen candidates, Giuliani's measured abortion rights stand could capture a key voting bloc.
As is probably apparent, this columnist is elated at the prospect of a Giuliani candidacy. I've long admired him not only for his leadership after Sept. 11, but for his take-no-prisoners style when governing New York.
Here's one example: For decades, education in New York City followed a strict routine. The mayor went to Albany to request more funds, and the sate legislators grudgingly granted it. That changed with Giuliani.
When legislators asked him the almost scripted question of whether additional money was needed for city schools, Giuliani stunned the assembly by saying that the system was so broken, more money was useless. Instead, he promised a "relentless campaign" to "literally crush the cost of bureaucracy in the school system."
He delivered on that promise, too
The best Giuliani moment, however, had to be his showdown with the late Palestinian leader (and terrorist enabler) Yasser Arafat. When Giuliani was a U.S. attorney, he investigated some of Arafat's activities - and learned that he was hardly the man of peace commonly supposed.
So when Arafat was in town for a U.N. conference and showed up uninvited to a concert at the Lincoln Center's Avery Fisher Hall, the mayor knew exactly what to do. He kicked him out.
The incident caused an uproar. Former mayor Ed Koch declared that "Giuliani has behavioral problems," and the Clinton administration was angered at Giuliani's boldness. Giuliani, however, was not swayed. "My only regret," he told an aide, "was that I didn't throw him out myself." Actions like this earned Giuliani the ire of Democrats everywhere in the '90s.
If he goes deep into the primaries, liberals will undoubtedly dredge this and other incidents up in an attempt to portray him as racially insensitive. But nothing will reassure Republicans that Giuliani can be trusted more than the sight of Al Sharpton denouncing him.
So what does this all mean? There's no denying that Giuliani will have a tough time getting the nomination, but it's hardly impossible. As Sam Brownback, George Pataki, or any other Republican no-names could tell you, there are worse places to be than at 31 percent.
Andrew Buttaro is a Heights staff columist. He welcomes comments at buttaroa@bcheights.com.
2008 Woodie Awards
